ICIS Supply and Demand Database

LONDON (ICIS)–Relatively stable demand and evolving global supply dynamics are expected in European ammonia and acrylonitrile (ACN) markets in 2025. In this latest podcast, global ammonia editor Sylvia Tranganida and Europe ACN editor Nazif Nazmul share the latest developments and expectations for what lies ahead. Ammonia players are expecting European demand from the nitrates market to pick up soon Availability is due to tighten with scheduled turnarounds in Saudi Arabia and Indonesia Ammonia prices globally are softening due to a lack of major demand Geopolitics-led macroeconomic challenges dampen prospects of ACN derivatives demand resurgence Balanced-to-long ACN supply dynamics anticipated to endure

20-May-2025

Bundled product to be offered after usual capacity allocated on monthly basis If approved by regulators, this could benefit Ukraine and TSOs along the route Use of Trans-Balkan corridor in line with EU Russian gas phaseout roadmap LONDON (ICIS)–Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) along the Trans-Balkan route are looking to establish a single bundled transmission capacity product that would allow gas imported into Greece to be shipped to Ukraine at a uniform discounted tariff, according to a letter sent by the operators to national regulators and seen by ICIS. TSOs in Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine are proposing to offer a ‘route product’ which would connect several border points. This means that, rather than paying for capacity separately, companies would be able to book the full route at a single tariff. The route will be used for supplies to Ukraine only and will not allow companies to access domestic virtual trading points along the Trans-Balkan corridor for now. If approved, the product will be offered on a temporary basis between June–September 2025, but could be extended if it proves viable. The proposed Route 1 would involve the following interconnection points: Kulata/Sidirokastron (Greece-Bulgaria) Negru Voda/Kardam (Bulgaria-Romania) Isaccea/Orlovka, Kaushany, Grebenyky (Romania-Ukraine, Ukraine-Moldova, Moldova-Ukraine) LOWEST AVAILABLE CAPACITY Subject to regulators' approval, the capacity offered at each interconnection point (IP) will be the lowest available firm capacity at any of the IPs along the route and will be matched in the other IPs. This principle will apply on the remaining available capacity after the usual capacity is allocated at rolling monthly auctions in line with EU rules. “This approach will ensure that the offered Route 1 product consists only of capacity which was not booked, [for which] market participants have not expressed their interest in booking it during the standard auctions and would otherwise remain unutilized. This solution will also reinforce the principles of sustainable competition and solidarity,” the grid operators said in the letter seen by ICIS. The proposed Route 1 product is planned to be offered on the Hungary-based Regional Booking Platform (RBP) on a monthly basis, on the 4th Monday of each month immediately preceding the month of delivery. To guarantee the completion of auctions on the same day, operators will apply a uniform price algorithm. DISCOUNTED TARIFF The capacity of Route 1 product will be offered at a reserve price equal to the sum of the reserve prices applicable for monthly capacity at the IPs for the respective month. The total sum of the tariffs charged by the Greek , Bulgaria, Romanian and Moldovan TSOs would be discounted by 25%. The Ukrainian gas grid operator, GTSOU, already applies a 46% short-haul tariff discount at the Isaccea and Kaushany border points with Romania and Moldova, providing the Grebenyky border point with Moldova is also used. More concretely,  it currently costs just over €10/MWh to export regasified gas from Greece’s Revithousa LNG terminal to Ukrainian storage. If the proposed Route 1 uniform tariff is approved, the total tariff from Greece up to the Romanian-Bulgarian border would be discounted by 25%. The remaining stretch from Isaccea to Grebenyky crossing Moldova would be discounted by 46% in line with existing tariff reductions offered by GTSOU. SUPPLY DIVERSIFICATION The EU has identified the Trans-Balkan corridor as one of the key transmission routes of gas to help central and eastern European countries to diversify away from Russian gas. For now, Route 1 would mostly benefit Ukraine as it seeks to secure over 5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas to build up stocks ahead of winter. However, operators along the corridor would also generate revenue as some of the capacity had been idle in recent years. Route 1 proposes the shipment of gas from Greece to Ukraine, but there have also been discussions to include delivery points from the Alexandroupolis LNG terminal once it returns from maintenance in August. This means that the Interconnector Greece Bulgaria (IGB) could also be added to the single product. A source close to discussions told ICIS operators are also considering an option for a shorter route linking Bulgaria to Moldova or Bulgaria to Ukraine. Nevertheless, Bulgaria is a transit route for Russian gas which means there is a risk that those volumes would end up in Ukrainian storage just as the EU is preparing to clamp down on spot imports from Russia.

20-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–A fire broke out at South Korea-based tire manufacturer Kumho Tire at its Gwangju plant in the south of the country on 17 May, suspending operations at the plant. The fire, which took place at the company’s Plant 2, broke out at 7am local time (22:00 GMT) and firefighters were dispatched, with containment levels at over 90% by 18 May, according to South Korea’s National Fire Agency. Kumho Tires issued an apology on 18 May and said it is working with the fire department “and other relevant authorities” to extinguish the fire. It is also investigating how the blaze started. “We … are responding systematically and responsibly to all procedures, including damage recovery, resident protection, and cooperation with relevant authorities,” Kumho Tire said. “The expected date of production resumption and other changes will be re-announced as details are confirmed,” said Kumho Tire in a bourse statement on 19 May. The Gwangju plant accounts for 19.7% of Kumho Tire's total global capacity, the company said. Demand losses for raw materials such as synthetic rubbers – an important component for tires – may be contained as the company is expected to raise operating rates at other sites to minimize disruptions as a result of the fire, market sources said. Kumho Tire is considering plans to substitute Gwangju plant production by utilizing its Gokseong plant as well as plants located overseas, sources said. Additional reporting by Ai Teng Lim

20-May-2025

SAO PAULO (ICIS)–Here are some of the stories from ICIS Latin America for the fortnight ended on 16 May. NEWS Brazil’s Braskem swings to profit in Q1 but global petchems issues remainBraskem swung to a net profit in the first quarter, year on year, but sales and earnings fell slightly as the global petrochemicals downturn continues, management at the Brazilian polymers major said on Monday. Braskem-Idesa launches its ethane import terminal in MexicoBraskem-Idesa (BI) officially launched the Terminal Quimica Puerto Mexico (TQPM) on Wednesday, according to a notice from the company. Brazil's Unipar Q1 metrics show start of recovery, but further protectionism needed – execsUnipar’s Q1 sales and earnings rose strongly, year on year, despite the prolonged global petrochemicals downturn, weather-related disruptions at its Argentine operations, and lower self-generated energy availability in Brazil due to grid operator restrictions, executives the Brazilian chemicals producer said on Friday. Brazil’s Unigel small earnings save day in Q1; deal with Petrobras imminent ‘at no cost’ Unigel’s Q1 low earnings at Brazilian reais (R) 23 million ($4.0 million) represented, however, a recovery from negative earnings of R29 million in the same quarter of 2024, the Brazilian styrenics and acrylics producer said on Friday. Brazil’s Unigel still planning exit from fertilizers but may mull Petrobras plans for northern facilitiesUnigel could evaluate plans set out by Petrobras for the fertilizers plants in the northern states of Bahia and Sergipe which were leased to the Brazilian chemicals producer until this month, a spokesperson for Unigel said to ICIS. INSIGHT: Mexico’s automotive tariffs raise specter of recession, rest of LatAm more resilientMexico remains the potential largest victim of the change in US trade policy, but practically no country in the world would be spared from an impact, analysts said this week. INSIGHT: Brazil’s Lula visit to China bears fruit with multi-billion dealsBrazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already got several investment deals in the bag midway through his five-day state visit to China – among others, Envision Group has committed $1.0 billion in Latin America’s largest economy to produce sugarcane-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). MOVES: Mexico’s trade group ANIQ appoints Jose Carlos Pons as presidentMexico's chemicals trade group ANIQ has appointed Jose Carlos Pons as president for the 2025-2027 term amid intensifying pressures from trade disputes with the US and broader regional challenges. Mexico’s chemicals Q1 output down 1.4% amid wider industrial fallsMexico’s chemicals output fell by 1.4% in the first quarter (Q1), year on year, but production of plastics and rubbers rose healthily, the country’s statistical office Inegi said. Argentina’s fall in inflation further boosts Milei’s cause, but sustained success harder to come byArgentina’s annual rate of inflation fell further in April to 47.3%, down from 56% in March, according to the country’s statistical office Indec, in another boost to President Javier Milei drastic economic measures. IFA '25: Brazil Potash pushes to 'lock-in funding this year'Muriate of potash (MOP) mine developer Brazil Potash continues its pursuit of investors at the International Fertilizer Association (IFA) annual conference in Monte Carlo. Colombia’s fiscal woes to grow on lower crude prices, hit Petro’s pre-election spending plansPotentially lower crude oil prices in coming months will dent Colombia’s Treasury ability to collect proceeds from the key income-generator sector, which is dominated by state-owned Ecopetrol.  PRICINGLatAm PP domestic, international prices unchanged on sufficient supply, stable to soft demandDomestic and international polypropylene (PP) prices were unchanged this week across Latin American countries. LatAm PE domestic, international prices steady on stable demand, ample supplyDomestic and international polyethylene (PE) prices were assessed as steady this week across the region. LatAm PE domestic prices fall on the back of competitive imports from the USDomestic polyethylene (PE) prices fell across Latin American countries on the back of competitive offers from the US. LatAm PP domestic prices steady to lower on cheaper imports and feedstocksDomestic polypropylene (PP) prices were assessed as steady to lower across Latin American countries on the back of lower feedstock costs and competitive offers from abroad.

19-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News from the week ended 16 May. China, US agree to lower tariffs by 14 May for 90 days The US and China have agreed to de-escalate trade war with sharp cuts on tariffs by 14 May 2025, for an initial period of three months, according to a joint statement issued on Monday by the world’s two biggest economies. US chem shares surge on tariff pause US-listed shares of chemical companies surged on Monday after the US and China agreed to a 90-day pause on the tariffs they imposed on each other since 2 April. INSIGHT: US-China 90-day pause a huge relief for US chemicals, to catalyze strategic rethinking The US-China agreement to substantially take down tariffs during a 90-day pause while negotiations on a trade deal resume is a big relief for US chemicals and plastics producers, especially those with meaningful exports to China. Canada’s Alberta province freezes industrial carbon price, cites US tariffs The government of Canada’s oil-rich Alberta is freezing the province's industrial carbon price at Canadian dollar (C$) 95/tonne ($68/tonne). INSIGHT: US propane poised for China return on sharp cuts in bilateral tariffs High-level trade talks between the US and China on 12 May have yielded significant reduction in the level of newly imposed tariffs by both sides, boding well for operating rates at Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. INSIGHT: Brazil’s Lula visit to China bears fruit with multi-billion deals Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had already got several investment deals in the bag midway through his five-day state visit to China – among others, Envision Group has committed $1.0 billion in Latin America’s largest economy to produce sugarcane-based sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). Saudi Aramco, US companies sign deals worth $90 billion Saudi energy and chemical giant Saudi Aramco has signed 34 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and agreements potentially worth about $90 billion in total, with major US companies. INSIGHT: US auto, metal tariffs persist, threaten chem demand The tariff deal that the US has reached with China did not eliminate the duties on steel, aluminium and auto parts, all of which could lower automobile production and reduce demand for the plastics and chemicals used to make the vehicles. Texas firms expect partial but swift pass through of tariff costs Businesses in the chemical-heavy US state of Texas expect a partial but swift pass through of the costs they expect to bear from the nation's tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas said on Friday.

19-May-2025

LONDON (ICIS)–Here are some of the top stories from ICIS Europe for the week ended 16 May. INSIGHT: Markets rally as US, China de-escalate tariffs stand-offMarkets and chemicals stocks rallied on Monday in the wake of an agreement by the US and China to dramatically cut reciprocal tariff rates for 90 days, signalling the first step in a de-escalation of trade tensions. INSIGHT: Limited improvements in demand for toluene and downstream sectors in EuropeNo significant growth is expected for toluene consumption in the near future, with long markets for certain isocyanates, a disappointing start to the summer driving season and tepid benzene demand stymying near-term growth hopes. INSIGHT: Sale of SABIC assets in Europe could make strategic senseA sale by SABIC of its European petrochemical assets could make strategic sense as the company has production in the Middle East, US and China, which benefit from much lower production costs. Europe butac sellers voice concerns over cheaper Chinese imports amid weak demandButyl acetate (butac) sellers in Europe have grown increasingly concerned about competitively-priced imports from China. As spot buying appetite in the continent is already subdued, domestic sellers are facing intense competition to offload material. European OX market flatlines as construction demand struggles, tariff uncertainty continuesHopes for a pick-up in European orthoxylene (OX) demand for the rest of 2025 are fading among downstream phthalic anhydride (PA) producers, as orders from the key construction sector remain flat year on year in the early stages of the warm season.

19-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Taiwan's ethylene crackers are expected to run at 60-70% of capacity on average this year amid heightened regional competition and weak downstream demand, according to the Petrochemical Industry Association of Taiwan (PIAT). Economic uncertainty, US tariffs and geopolitical risk are pressure points for the industry, the industry body said in a report released at the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025 on 15-16 May in Bangkok. Taiwan’s ethylene capacity is about 4.0 million tonnes; while its propylene capacity is about 3.4 million tonnes, according to PIAT. Despite a potential short-term rebound in prices for Taiwan’s petrochemical sector in 2025, continued capacity extensions in China will “intensify market price competition”, PIAT said. For 2025, it forecasts a 2.7% growth for both supply and demand of ethylene, with a projected 61% surge in exports. Propylene, on the other hand, is expected to post a 2.2% contraction in both supply and demand, with exports expected to more than double. Ethylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,596,243 2,650,000 2.1% Import 228,176 250,000 9.6% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Demand Domestic 2,818,820 2,891,000 2.6% Export 5,599 9,000 60.8% Total 2,824,419 2,900,000 2.7% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 4,005,000 4,005,000  Propylene (in tonnes) 2024 2025 (estimated) change Supply Production 2,315,130 2,363,700 2.1% Import 309,100 202,600 -34.5% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Demand Domestic 2,566,418 2,400,500 -6.5% Export 57,812 165,800 186.8% Total 2,624,230 2,566,300 -2.2% Year End Capacity (tonnes/year) 3,370,500 3,370,500 Source: PIAT China is expected to increase its 2025 ethylene capacity by approximately 7.8 million tonnes, or by 15%, to 60.99 million tonnes. But ethylene derivative consumption is expected to grow at a slower rate of 12.6%, and ethylene demand is expected to rise by just 6%, PIAT said, posing a challenge for neighboring suppliers that have historically relied on exports to China. Taiwanese producers have either reduced operating rates or remained idle over the past three years, while ethylene exports to China dropped to zero last year. “Given weak downstream demand and regional competition, cracker utilization rates are expected to average 60%-70% in 2025,” PIAT said in the report. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s demand for propylene is expected to weaken further due to weak downstream demand, particularly for polypropylene (PP) and epichlorohydrin (ECH). China's ongoing capacity expansion also continues to pressure Taiwanese producers, said the PIAT. Since 2024, Taiwan’s propylene exports to China have been subject to tariffs, posing a challenge for accessing the Chinese market. According to PIAT data, major petrochemical production dropped 2.39%, exports were down by 4.3% and demand fell by 1.1% in 2024 from the previous year. Visit the ICIS Topic Page: US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy. Thumbnail image At the port city of Keelung, Taiwan on 20 March 2025. (RITCHIE B TONGO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock)

19-May-2025

SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Here are the top stories from ICIS News Asia and the Middle East for the week ended 16 May 2025. APIC '25: INSIGHT: Asia petrochemical industry facing “unprecedented crisis” BANGKOK (ICIS)–Asia's petrochemical industry leaders are navigating a complex global landscape marked by unprecedented challenges, with a renewed focus on sustainability, innovation, and regional collaboration, industry leaders said on Friday. APIC '25: INSIGHT: Thai petrochemical sector contends with low-cost overseas rivals BANGKOK (ICIS)–External factors continue to pressure Thailand’s petrochemical industry, driven by new capacity additions from low-cost producers, particularly those in the Middle East, according to a report by the Federation of Thai Industries, Petrochemical Industry Club (FTIPC). INSIGHT: US propane poised for China return on sharp cuts in bilateral tariffs SINGAPORE (ICIS)–High-level trade talks between the US and China on 12 May have yielded significant reduction in the level of newly imposed tariffs by both sides, boding well for operating rates at Chinese propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants. ICIS China April petrochemical price index slumps on tariff war SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The ICIS China Petrochemical Price Index declined by an average of 5.6% in April from the previous month as the trade war with the US raged on and weighed heavily on Chinese exports and domestic demand China, US agree to lower tariffs by 14 May for 90 days SINGAPORE (ICIS)–The US and China have agreed to de-escalate trade war with sharp cuts on tariffs by 14 May 2025, for an initial period of three months, according to a joint statement issued on Monday by the world’s two biggest economies. Saudi Aramco Q1 net income falls 4.6% on high cost, low crude prices SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Saudi Aramco's first-quarter net income fell by 4.6% year on year to Saudi riyal (SR) 97.5 billion ($26 billion), weighed down by a combination of higher cost and lower oil prices.

19-May-2025

HOUSTON (ICIS)–Asia-US container rates surged this week as trade between the US and China is expected to surge amid the 90-pause on reciprocal tariffs between the two nations. Rates from online freight shipping marketplace and platform provider Freightos showed minimal increases in the low-single digits, but rates from supply chain advisors Drewry showed significant increases of 19% from Shanghai to New York and 16% from Shanghai to Los Angeles, as shown in the following chart. Following the latest US–China trade developments, Drewry expects an increase in Transpacific spot rates in the coming week due to shortage in capacity. Peter Sand, chief analyst at ocean and freight rate analytics firm Xeneta, said the 90-day pause is expected to lead to a surge of activity, where spot rates will peak and then flatten as carriers redeploy capacity to match demand over the next two to four weeks. “The US-China announcement on the temporary lowering of tariffs fired the starting gun for shippers to rush as many imports as they can during the 90-day window of opportunity,” Sand said. “There is no time to waste for these shippers and the rush of cargo will put upward pressure on spot rates on Transpacific trades.” But Sand said that a deeper dive into data shows shippers paying prices towards the market mid-high for rates agreed post the US-China announcement, while legacy agreements struck before 12 May will continue to keep a lid on the bubbling market averages for a short time. The following chart shows Xeneta’s rates from North China to the US Gulf. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, also expects to see a surge in imports. “We are likely to see a significant demand rebound in the near term as shippers replenish inventories that may have started to run down in the past month and as many Chinese manufacturers have high levels of finished goods already ready to ship,” Levine said. With an August deadline for the possible return of higher tariff levels, it is also likely that the near-term ocean demand rebound will mark the start of more frontloading, Levine said. “If so, it would also mark the early start of this year’s peak season, which could end earlier than usual as well for the same reasons,” Levine said. TANKER RATES STABLE TO LOWER US chemical tanker freight rates assessed by ICIS were stable to lower this week with rates for parcels from the US Gulf (USG) to Asia dropping once again. Rates from the USG to Asia ticked lower both for smaller parcels and larger parcels. Overall, market activity is weaker for most destinations to Asian ports, prompting owners to reposition tonnage to bridge the gap between southeast Asia and northern destinations. Overall, along this route there is very little quoted, aside from the usual contract of affreightment (COA) volumes there has not been much activity, besides the usual methanol and monoethylene glycol (MEG) cargoes. From the USG to Brazil, the market COA volumes remain steady as there were some inquiries and much less space is available for May for part cargoes, as COA nominations appear completed for the month. According to one ship broker, “owners are reporting very limited parcel space available”. The usual mix of caustic soda and methanol seems to be most visibly seen quoted in the market. For the USG to Rotterdam, there are some bits of cargo space still available for May. Most of the outsider vessels that were on berth have already sailed, and only the regulars remain at this time as they push tonnage availability which is all but full. However, there were steadier quotes styrene, methanol and caustic seen in the market this week for June loadings. Freight rates are now expected to remain steady for the time being. With additional reporting by Kevin Callahan Visit the US tariffs, policy – impact on chemicals and energy topic page Visit the Logistics: Impact on chemicals and energy topic page

16-May-2025

BANGKOK (ICIS)–Over the past week, Asia ethylene players arrived in Bangkok, Thailand, to reflect on the industry’s drift towards oversupply, and probe opportunities for continued survival as supply-demand balance changes enter the horizon. Feedstock cost competitiveness, ethane conversion considerations on the table Consolidation a complex question, but looking more necessary for survival New SE Asia supply may cause supply-demand balance changes for Indonesia In this chemical podcast, ICIS editor Josh Quah discusses some insights gleaned from the Asia Petrochemical Industry Conference (APIC) 2025, held in Bangkok, Thailand.

16-May-2025