European producers may end up seeing major benefits. Local demand is clearly set for major expansion as a result of the recent massive German and EU spending packages. And competition will move to a more ‘local-for-local’ basis as tariffs remove the basis for globalisation.
Chemicals and the Economy
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen” VIadimir Lenin
We are now back in a world where geopolitics, not economics, drives decision-making. It is a world of shifting alliances. And so defence spending is set to be a key growth area for the future as Cold War 2.0 begins.
Trump’s tariff war confirms geopolitics are replacing economics as the key driver for decisions
The Perennials 55+ cohort have replaced babies as the main source of US population growth since 2005. They already own most of what they need. So the need for globalisation has disappeared. As Trump and Musk are suggesting, a period of rapid and uncomfortable change now seems to lie ahead.
The polls may be close, but normal ‘polling error’ means Harris or Trump could still win by a landslide
Voter enthusiasm is usually key to election victory. And it is clear that Trump’s focus on immigration is enthusing many voters. But logic suggests that Kamala Harris’ focus on women’s reproductive rights makes her best placed to win, potentially with a larger majority than the polls suggest.
European voters rally to the centre as external threats increase
Europe faces major geopolitical threats. In the East, the EU faces an existential challenges from Russia’s Ukraine invasion and its “no limits” partnership with China. In the West, there is rising uncertainty over Donald Trump’s support for Europe if he became president
EU and UK elections will likely set new course for Europe, as geopolitical tensions rise
Both elections could well prove the most important in decades. The EU faces major crises with Russia’s invasion and the risk of deindustrialisation. The UK also faces crises – on the economy, the health service and governance. And both know that November’s US election may add to their challenges.
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